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Player outlooks · G · TB

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Consensus #55 · G8 · tier 4Week 5: 4 gamesUpdated Nov 2

Vasilevskiy is Tampa Bay's undisputed No. 1 goalie this season. He is the reigning Vezina winner, is coming off a slow stretch, and the Lightning are managing his workload with a backup.

Role

He is the starter, with Dennis Hildeby listed as his backup in Lightning warmup reporting from Oct. 21 (Gabby Shirley via a fan account on X). CBS/RotoWire noted on Oct. 13 that he was making his fifth start in six games, and said a run of starts was possible with no back-to-backs ahead. Hockey-Reference's game log shows him in net on Oct. 13, 15, 20, 23 and 31, the last a 4-4 shootout loss in Nashville. The Lightning visit on Nov. 3 is against Detroit, and I did not confirm who starts it. I fetched Daily Faceoff's Lightning line page (last updated Oct. 31), but the text I could read did not include the goalie section. I therefore cannot report a Daily Faceoff goalie split, or an exact games-played split between him and Hildeby.

The case for

He won the 2025-26 Vezina after going 39-15-4 with a 2.31 GAA in 58 games and leading the NHL in wins (ESPN). NHL Network ranked him the No. 1 goalie in the league in the offseason. Lightning coverage says his play would have to "absolutely crater" for the starting job to open up (Bolts by the Bay). Optimists also point to his history of slow starts, which ESPN's player-page analysis last year tied to low shot volumes.

The case against

His 2026-27 numbers are mixed. He allowed four on 24 shots in the opener, a 5-1 loss to the Rangers, and five on 23 in a 6-3 loss at Colorado on Oct. 23. He allowed four in the Oct. 31 shootout loss in Nashville. Skeptics also point to his age (32) and the workload management he and coach Jon Cooper have used over the years, which caps his starts even when he is healthy. He is also behind an unproven backup, so the Lightning's goaltending depth is thin if he is hurt. He had major back surgery in a past season, per Bolts by the Bay.

Where analysts split

The disagreement is about workload, not job security. The question is how many of the 84 games he starts, and whether Hildeby (or an outside backup) takes the 8 to 10 rest starts that Tampa fans have been hoping for. I found no one questioning his hold on the No. 1 job. Our supplied last-season line (9 GP, 1 GS) does not match the 58 games reported by ESPN for 2025-26, so I did not use it.

Research confidence: reported. Outlooks are grounded in web search over current reporting and refreshed through the season.

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