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Player outlooks · C · COL

Nathan MacKinnon

Consensus #2 · C2 · tier 2Week 5: 4 gamesUpdated Nov 2

MacKinnon is the first-line center and first power-play unit forward on a 7-5-1 Avalanche team (record as of the Oct. 31 preview), with no designation and nothing in current coverage that threatens that role.

Role

Daily Faceoff's line page (fetched Nov 2, last updated Nov 1) has him at center between Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas. Its first power-play unit is T.J. Hughes, Nazem Kadri, Necas, Cale Makar and MacKinnon. The second unit is Lehkonen, Gabriel Landeskog, Jaden Schwartz, Devon Toews and Brock Nelson. ESPN, Colorado Hockey Now and the Oct. 31 Inside the Rink preview show the same top line. The Inside the Rink preview and an Oct. 19 preview from the same site list him on PP1 with Makar. His recent ice time is 22:59 and 23:56 in two earlier games, per those Inside the Rink previews. A Puckcast page from Oct. 27 listed a different first line (MacKinnon, Necas, Kadri) from the Oct. 25 game, so the wings have moved. Last season he played 14 GP with 24 PTS, 4 PPP and 57 SOG, and I have no reporting on why he played so few games.

The case for

He is on the top line and top power-play unit with Makar and Necas. An Oct. 13 Inside the Rink preview, citing Box Score Junkie, had him at 61.9% Corsi-for with 78.9 shot attempts for per 60. The same preview had him at five goals on 2.5 expected, and he had shot totals of eight and nine in recent games.

The case against

The sources I read are mostly automated line pages, with little beat-writer analysis. His wingers have rotated, with Kadri and Lehkonen each shown on his line at different points. The Oct. 13 preview also had him scoring well above expected goals, which could cool. At 31, with only 14 GP last season, his availability is a fair question, but I found no current injury reporting.

Where analysts split

broad agreement

Research confidence: thin. Outlooks are grounded in web search over current reporting and refreshed through the season.

Others at C

Every hockey outlook

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