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Player outlooks · C · VGK

Tomas Hertl

Consensus #85 · C30 · tier 10Week 5: 4 gamesUpdated Nov 2

Hertl is a middle-six center on Vegas who has moved between the second and third lines this season, with a first power-play unit spot in the projections I found.

Role

The Inside the Rink projection for the 11/02 game at Boston (dated today) has him centering the third line, Brett Howden-Hertl-Braeden Bowman, and on the first power-play unit with Stone, Connelly, Eichel and Marner. The 10/30 projection (Inside the Rink) and the line rushes a beat reporter posted that day (@SinBinVegas, via X) had the same third line. The 10/24 preview had him on the second line with Connelly and Bowman. The 10/22 preview had him on the third line with Connelly and Lavoie. The Morning Puck page, indexed 18 days ago, shows him at 15:44 of ice time on the third line. That is a stale figure, and I did not fetch the page. Karlsson and Dowd are the other centers in the lineup. The projection pages say they draw on Daily Faceoff, but I did not fetch Daily Faceoff itself or read a beat-writer column. His 5 goals and 8 points in 14 games this season come from an All About the Jersey preview (3 days ago). That preview also says the Hertl-Connelly pairing grades well at 5-on-5 on MoneyPuck's expected-goals share. Last season he played 15 games and had 3 power-play points.

The case for

He is on the first power-play unit in each projection I found, and he has 8 points in 14 games this season. One preview calls the Hertl-Connelly pairing a secret weapon for Vegas, based on 5-on-5 expected-goals numbers. His line has been rearranged several times without him dropping off the top power-play unit, so he could move back up to the second line.

The case against

His even-strength role has settled lower than the top two lines, and the latest two projections have him on the third line. Vegas is deep at forward, and his linemates keep changing among Howden, Connelly, Bowman and Lavoie. He carries a long injury history, and last season he played only 15 games. At 32, he is also stuck behind Eichel and Karlsson at center. I found no coverage that reports his ice time this season.

Where analysts split

I found no analyst debate about him. The open question, visible only in the changing projections, is whether he stays on the third line or returns to the second line alongside Connelly. It is a lineup observation, not a published disagreement.

Research confidence: thin. Outlooks are grounded in web search over current reporting and refreshed through the season.

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Tomas Hertl fantasy outlook: C, VGK · Fantasy Memo