Travis Kelce
Kelce is still a top-two target for Kansas City at 37, but his share has slipped from the opening weeks and the offense around him is thin.
Role
Through Week 6, StatChasers had him at 18.4% of 147 Chiefs targets, second to Xavier Worthy at 19.7% (reported by Heavy and Yardbarker). The same report has him on about 77% of offensive snaps. A Yahoo snap table for one recent game showed him at 40 snaps (66%) next to Noah Gray at 39 (64%), so two tight ends are on the field together. Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee) was out in that game. Tyquan Thornton is expected to miss most or all of the regular season after dislocating an ankle. Kenneth Walker (15.0%) is also a pass-game factor, and Gray, Jalen Royals and Emmett Johnson split the remaining volume. Sunday's line, 4 catches on 8 targets for 44 yards, fits the target-share picture.
He still gets a starter's share of the targets (second on the team, 18.4%) and plays most of the snaps. With Thornton out for the year and Rice recently sidelined, Mahomes has few proven options. ESPN's note says he led the team with eight targets with Rice out. He is also now free of an injury designation after a limited-practice ankle issue the week of the Seahawks game.
His share is falling: it was down 9.2 points from the first two weeks, and Legion Report's last-three-game share was 13.9%. ESPN calls his days as an elite producer over and says his role could shrink further. His 2025 target share (19.6%) was his lowest since 2014. The offense is also struggling: Sunday's 20-3 loss, and ESPN's note of only three Butker field-goal attempts in another game. Mahomes keeps about 89% of his throws under 20 air yards, which caps big plays. The ankle issue is a small added risk for a 37-year-old.
Where analysts split
The open question is whether his target share keeps sliding toward the low teens as Rice returns and Worthy, Walker and Gray take more of the volume, or whether it holds near 18% because the offense lacks other options. I did not find a named analyst arguing either side directly. The split is inferred from the trend data and ESPN's cautious outlook.
Research confidence: reported. Outlooks are grounded in web search over current reporting and refreshed through the season.
Others at TE
Fantasy Memo reads your league and answers that every Tuesday, and checks again before kickoff.
Connect your league: 14 days free