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Player outlooks · RB · BAL · bye 13

Derrick Henry

Consensus #20 · RB11Week 9: vs JAX, 2nd vs RBUpdated Oct 13

Henry is still Baltimore's lead back as of Week 5, but he shares the field with Justice Hill, and his week-to-week volume may depend on whether Lamar Jackson plays.

Role

In the 30-23 overtime win over Atlanta, Yahoo's snap count (published Oct. 12) has Henry at 42 of 76 offensive snaps (55%) and Justice Hill at 35 (46%). RotoWire's box score breakdown lists Henry at 41 snaps (58%) and says he took 26 of Baltimore's 34 RB opportunities. Henry had 24 carries. He also had 2 targets and 6 routes, which is 16% of routes by RotoWire's count. Hill had a 47-yard run and six touches, and Yahoo noted he played a lot late in the game during the hurry-up offense. Henry also took a direct snap for the game-tying two-point conversion. Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali were not in the backfield snap counts I read. I did not read a current depth chart.

The case for

He is the clear lead back in a run-heavy offense. He got 24 carries and the goal-line and two-point work against Atlanta, and he still caught an 18-yard touchdown on a screen. The Ravens topped 200 rushing yards as a team (RotoWire). Last season Baltimore leaned on him in run-heavy games, including a 36-carry game.

The case against

His snap share was only 55% to 58%, and Hill was on the field for 46%. Henry is 32. Last season the team's own site noted he gave up late-game snaps and carries to Mitchell in a loss. Hill's late-game work in hurry-up situations and the 47-yard run show a pass-down and tempo role that takes snaps from Henry. This game also had Tyler Huntley at quarterback for all 76 snaps, so I can't say how much of this usage carries over to a normal game.

Where analysts split

Broad agreement that Henry is the lead back. I found no current analyst split. The open question, which I did not find argued either way, is whether Hill's 46% snap share holds or was inflated by a game that turned into a comeback and a hurry-up offense. I also don't know why Jackson sat or when he returns, so the quarterback situation behind this usage is unconfirmed.

Research confidence: reported. Outlooks are grounded in web search over current reporting and refreshed through the season.

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