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Player outlooks · RB · DEN · bye 10

J.K. Dobbins

Consensus #140 · RB47Week 9: at CAR, 31st vs RBUpdated Oct 27

Dobbins has dropped from lead back to one piece of a three-man Broncos committee, and his fantasy value now rests mostly on short-yardage and goal-line carries.

Role

In Week 7 at Arizona he played 14 of 61 offensive snaps (23% per Yahoo/PFF; Florio put it at 21%). He had 6 carries for 23 yards and a touchdown, and no targets. Rookie Jonah Coleman returned from injured reserve and led the backfield with 30 snaps (about 50%) and 11 touches. RJ Harvey played 16 snaps (26%) and scored on a 52-yard screen. Earlier this season Dobbins played 21 snaps to Harvey's 29 in Week 4. In Week 5 he played 32 snaps to Harvey's 23 and had 18 carries. SI's Week 7 piece listed him as the team leader in carries (81) and red zone opportunities (12 to Harvey's 5). FantasyData's depth chart listed him as the starter, but I did not open that page, so that is a snippet and it may be stale. Dobbins has almost no passing-game work: FantasyData noted that 35 of his first 36 touches were rushes.

The case for

Dobbins still leads Denver in carries and red zone work, and he has scored from a yard out three weeks running (Yahoo). A touchdown-dependent role can still pay off if the Broncos keep winning and keep running near the goal line. Coleman's workload was only one game after an injury, and Coleman did not score. NBC called Coleman "the" play for Week 8 but said Dobbins and Harvey are still involved.

The case against

Coleman took 30 snaps, more than Dobbins and Harvey combined, in his first game back. Heavy reported that Dobbins and Harvey were effectively told to sit behind him. Dobbins's snap share fell to 23%, and he had no targets. Heavy also reported that he refused interviews after the game amid rumors he could be part of a trade package for Jonathan Taylor. Those are rumors and I found nothing confirming a trade. Harvey owns the receiving work, so Dobbins has few ways to produce when he does not score.

Where analysts split

The split is whether Coleman's Week 7 snap lead is the new split or a one-game, post-injury usage spike. NBC treats Coleman as the top back going forward. SI (published before the game) favored Harvey over Dobbins for Week 7 because of Harvey's receiving work. It also noted that Dobbins leads in carries and red zone opportunities. I did not find a beat-writer statement from the Broncos on how the three will be divided.

Research confidence: reported. Outlooks are grounded in web search over current reporting and refreshed through the season.

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