Week 6: San Francisco's Monday Night Matchup Is the Easy Button

The lineup calls

Start George Kittle without a second thought. Washington ranks 31st against tight ends, and Kittle's snap share has climbed from 46 percent in Week 1 to 85 in Week 3 and 91 in Week 4. He caught five of six against Seattle. The one thing nobody has quantified is how the targets split now that Mike Evans is healthy and playing a bigger role, so don't expect a 12-target monster. Expect a top-six tight end week.

Brock Purdy and the 49ers D/ST come from the same place: a 5-0 team at home against a defense that has been 30th against quarterbacks. Purdy has added scrambles, a career-high 10 rushes against Denver and five for six yards against Seattle. On the defense, Kyle Shanahan said Nick Bosa has a chance to return Monday night after missing three games with a calf injury. Nobody has confirmed he plays. Week 6 rankings for the unit range from 2nd to 14th, which tells you how much of this is a matchup bet.

Mike Evans is the volume piece in that same game: 17 catches on 24 targets for 213 and two scores through four, and he led the team in targets and yards in Week 4. He is 33 and playing through a fractured rib, so monitor the week, but Washington is 31st against receivers. Deebo Samuel is out with a hamstring strain. Rotowire and ESPN project Weeks 6 and 7 missed with a possible return after the Week 8 bye, which is their read of Shanahan's "at least a couple of weeks," not a team date.

Ashton Jeanty gets Buffalo, 32nd against running backs, and his role is not in question: roughly 73 to 81 percent of snaps, about 70 percent of the carries, a route on about 61 percent of dropbacks, and six catches on eight targets against Kansas City. The efficiency argument (line or player) does not change that you start him. Cam Skattebo is the same idea against New Orleans, 30th versus backs: 57 of 76 snaps in the Week 4 win over Arizona, a 64.3 percent carry share, but 18 carries for 58 yards in an offense now run by Jameis Winston. High floor, limited ceiling.

Fades: Trey McBride draws the Rams, 3rd against tight ends, and you start him anyway after five straight double-digit target games. Travis Kelce (4th vs TE) and Kyle Pitts (5th vs TE) are different. Kelce's targets by game were 5, 11, 2 and 4. Pitts had 9 targets in his first four games before five catches on six targets in Week 5, and Atlanta's quarterback situation after Penix's rib injury has no update I can point to. Both are TE2 dart throws this week, not calls.

The waiver wire

MarShawn Lloyd leads the league-wide adds, and the data deserves a caveat. Acme Packing Company's Week 5 snap counts show Lloyd at 26 back snaps, Pierre Strong Jr. at 24 and Kaleb Johnson at 9: about 44 percent, down from the 55 percent the same site reported in Week 4. He had 10 carries and two targets Sunday. OC Adam Stenavich called it a committee in September. Whether Josh Jacobs returns is not confirmed in anything I read. Worth the claim against Dallas, not worth your top bid.

Brenton Strange is the cleaner add. He is first among Jaguars tight ends at 79 percent of team snaps per RotoWire, 0.22 targets per route run per TWSN, and eight targets in each of the last two games (26 through five). The Houston matchup is 6th-toughest against tight ends, so the add is for the rest of the season, not Sunday.

Kimani Vidal is the lottery ticket. Weeks 4 and 5 show a near-even three-way split with Keaton Mitchell and Omarion Hampton: Underdog had 38/37/32 on Oct 4. Vidal had eight carries, two targets and three kick returns in Week 5 and led the team in rushing. SI's Week 5 figures gave Mitchell 34 percent and Hampton 30 percent and did not list Vidal in the part quoted. No coach statement on a plan exists in what I found, and the Chargers draw Kansas City, 6th against backs.

Elsewhere: Keon Coleman is a DJ Moore-dependent add (77 percent snaps before Moore left the Patriots game, 78 after, 14 percent target share), and I have not verified Moore's status. Khalil Shakir's targets have gone 6, 6, 3, 8, then 3 against the Rams. Aaron Rodgers has thrown three touchdowns in each of three straight games with air yards per attempt up to 8.7 from 6.0, and at Tampa Bay he is a real streamer. Jayden Daniels ran nine times for 103 yards and two scores in Week 5 wearing an elbow brace, against previews that expected about four carries. The Patriots D/ST and Tyler Loop round out the adds.

Byes ahead

Week 6 takes MIN, DET, CIN and MIA off the board, and that is the worst bye of the season: Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins and Jameson Williams all sit. If you roster two of those receivers, this is the week you take a flier on a 49er against Washington rather than start a name you trust in a bad spot.

Week 7 pulls JAX, BUF, WAS and LAC: Josh Allen, James Cook, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton. That matters for the waiver math above, since Strange, Coleman, Shakir and Vidal are all on Week 7 byes. Add them for the role, not for next week's lineup.

Week 8 is NO, HOU, SF and NYG: Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, Travis Etienne, David Montgomery. Note that the Rotowire/ESPN projection for Samuel's return is after that bye, which means his next real game could be a long way out.

Injuries that matter

Saquon Barkley is the one to track. He missed Week 5 with a hamstring and Nick Sirianni is only "hopeful" for Sunday against Carolina, 29th against backs. The Eagles backfield behind him is gutted: Tank Bigsby is on IR after core muscle surgery, Will Shipley reportedly has a partial plantar fascia tear that costs him multiple weeks, and Dameon Pierce and Carson Steele came up from the practice squad. Watch Wednesday's practice report. There is no reporting on a snap limit either way.

David Montgomery is out, with Houston's coach calling him week-to-week and Woody Marks taking the lead role. Marks had already been at 24 of 55 snaps to Montgomery's 31 in Week 4, so this is not a cold handoff. Ladd McConkey is the trickier one: he did not practice all week, was active against Denver and played zero snaps, and Jim Harbaugh has called the foot week-to-week with no date. Quentin Johnston is out with a chest injury and no timeline reported. Treat the Chargers passing game as untouchable until someone practices.

TreVeyon Henderson left Week 5 with an ankle injury and needs further testing. He is questionable for the Jets with Kiner in the complementary role, and the severity is unknown. A.J. Brown is still on IR and his 21-day practice window has not opened, with his coach calling a return to practice this week only a "chance." Do not start him off a rumor.

The softer ones: CeeDee Lamb's quad bruise is not considered serious and he got extra rest before Green Bay. Rashee Rice's hamstring is described as relatively minor with an expected return after Kansas City's Week 5 bye. Stefon Diggs is tagged questionable but the report itself says out with an expected return next week, so treat him as unavailable. De'Von Achane tore his ACL and is done for the season. Jadarian Price is on IR and cannot return before Week 8.