Week 4 Memo: Aaron Jones Gets Miami, and Dallas Walks Into Houston

The lineup calls

Aaron Jones is the cleanest start on the board. Jordan Mason is on IR after thumb surgery and is not eligible back before Week 7, Jones played roughly 81% of the snaps in Week 2 as the early-down and passing-down back, and Miami has been the most generous defense in the league against running backs. DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne are the only company. Play him everywhere.

Tyler Warren at Washington is the tight end call of the week: Washington has been the 30th-toughest defense against the position, Alec Pierce is on IR, and Warren has scored in each of his last two games while drawing 5-7 targets. The catch, and it is a real one, is that the yardage has not come with the catches the last two weeks. Analysts are split on whether that is game script or defenses taking away his easy routes. The touchdown usage is why you start him anyway. Josh Downs is the same matchup at a lower confidence level: Washington has been 32nd against receivers, and Downs saw nine targets in the Kansas City overtime game, but nobody has established whether that was a role change or a shootout inflating everyone. Flex him, do not build around him.

Isaiah Likely is a starter against Arizona, 29th against tight ends. He led the Giants in targets in Week 2 with ten on roughly 69% of the snaps. The efficiency is ugly and Draftsharks is right that the quarterback play caps the payoff, but that target volume at tight end plays. Jahmyr Gibbs at Carolina, 31st against backs, needs no discussion.

The fades. Javonte Williams goes to Houston, the stingiest defense in the league against running backs, coming off 12 carries for 30 yards against Washington with Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah behind him. He is still the lead back and the volume is there, so this is a downgrade rather than a bench, but the touchdown-or-bust profile gets worse in that matchup. Hunter Henry at Buffalo, second-toughest against tight ends, is a streamer week to sit out. Dalton Kincaid faces New England, fifth-toughest at the position, and before the Detroit game he reportedly had not topped six targets all season. Jameson Williams draws the toughest defense against receivers with target counts that have swung from four to nine. Amon-Ra St. Brown plays in that same matchup and you start him anyway.

The waiver wire

Terrance Ferguson is the most interesting add. He played 36 of 61 snaps in Week 2 and turned nine targets into six catches, 54 yards and a score, ahead of Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee. He is listed questionable and the game he is being bid on came with Puka Nacua out, so the honest read is that this is a bet on a role that has not been confirmed as permanent. He also draws Philadelphia, the toughest defense against tight ends.

Braelon Allen is the priority claim in deeper leagues because of what is happening in front of him, not what he has done. Breece Hall is week-to-week with a thigh injury and may not be ready for Chicago. Allen works the short-yardage and goal-line role and has trailed Hall in snaps, one recent report having it 39-27. If Hall sits, Allen and Davis are in line for expanded work.

Alvin Kamara is back from the MCL injury and sharing the Saints backfield with Travis Etienne against Atlanta, the fourth-most generous defense against backs. His debut was 9 carries for 15 yards plus five catches for seven yards. The coaching staff has not clarified who gets goal-line work. That is a speculative add, not a lineup piece. Keenan Allen is the same story with worse volume: one catch on five targets against Kansas City, 11 targets in two games. Keaton Mitchell stays behind Omarion Hampton. Kenyon Sadiq is a third of the snaps behind Mason Taylor in a three-tight-end rotation, so leave him alone unless you are streaming on hope.

Byes ahead

Week 5 takes Kansas City and Carolina out: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Coker, plus Kenneth Walker and Tetairoa McMillan are all off the board.

Week 6 is the one that breaks rosters. Minnesota, Detroit, Cincinnati and Miami all rest at once, which means Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Justin Jefferson are gone in the same week. If your roster is Detroit-heavy, use this week's waiver run on a Week 6 fill-in rather than the shiniest name available.

Injuries that matter

De'Von Achane has a confirmed torn ACL and is out for the season. Some matchup data still lists Miami's game with him attached; ignore it. Drop him outside dynasty.

Puka Nacua has missed two straight games and McVay's language moved from hopeful to to-be-determined. Treat him as a game-time decision and watch the Friday update before Philadelphia. Justin Jefferson's MRI ruled out anything long-term on the ankle sprain and he is hopeful to play; the risk is a target dip if reps are managed, not an absence. Josh Allen took a knee hit, finished the game and ran afterward, with no indication he misses New England.

Out this week: Nico Collins (hamstring, ruled out, return date given as 10/04) and Caleb Williams (hamstring, ruled out, same return date). A.J. Brown remains on IR from a Week 1 high-ankle sprain and cannot practice until Week 6 at the earliest. Mike Evans has a rib strain with no significant damage found and is day-to-day, though his practice work may be affected. Jalen Coker has a minor quad strain and is questionable; his Wednesday-through-Friday practice reports decide it. For Breece Hall, the MRI was better than feared and he avoided IR, but he is officially week-to-week. Aaron Glenn's Wednesday press conference is the thing to watch.

One more: Sam Darnold is Seattle's starter but has a glute issue clouding his practice status. I could not retrieve analyst commentary on him beyond the injury wire, so treat him as a watch, not a start.