Week 4: Five Teams Play Four, Seven Play Two

The schedule

Five teams play four: CGY, EDM, LA, OTT and WPG. Seven play two: NYR, VGK, FLA, COL, SEA, PIT and TB. League average is 2.9, so everybody else is at three and behaves normally.

The Edmonton four-game block is the cleanest edge on the board. Connor McDavid (#1) and Leon Draisaitl (#3) get four, and Daily Faceoff's page, last updated 25 October off the 24 October game, has Podkolzin, McDavid and Draisaitl as the top line with McDavid on PP1 alongside Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl and Bouchard. Evan Bouchard (#9) is on the top pair with Ekholm and quarterbacks that unit: 12 points, 2 power-play points and 17 shots in 5 games, times four games. Ottawa's Jake Sanderson (#109) also gets four as the first-pair, PP1, PK1 defenseman.

The two-game side is where you need to be honest about the comparison. For this week only, Nathan MacKinnon (#2) at two games and a four-game Winnipeg or Edmonton regular are closer than the ranks suggest. For the season, they are not remotely close, and nobody should be benching MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov (#6) or Jack Eichel (#13) over a schedule quirk in a roto league. In a head-to-head week you are trying to win now, the math is different, and a two-game Kucherov is a real cost.

Three-game teams with stars worth noting: Kirill Kaprizov (#7) with Minnesota, David Pastrnak (#8) and Boston, Macklin Celebrini (#10) in San Jose, Auston Matthews (#14) and Jason Robertson (#15).

The goalie starts

Linus Ullmark leads the expected-start table at about 1.8 on Ottawa's four games, but he is on IR with a lower-body injury and a reported one-to-two week absence. Do not start him. The projection is built off the schedule and his share; the designation overrides it. The same caution applies to Connor Hellebuyck, also at 1.8 and listed Out. Friedman reported on Oct. 17 that the team-imposed suspension for missing camp ends Oct. 23 and he could rejoin the team. What happens after that, trade, reinstatement or paid absence, is not settled in anything I have read.

The usable names: Ilya Sorokin at about 1.6, though DeBoer has given Varlamov real starts, three of the last five for Sorokin through Oct. 17. Jake Oettinger at 1.5, Dallas's clear No. 1, who has started all six Stars games, carrying a day-to-day wire note whose cause I could not find. Jeremy Swayman at 1.5 with DiPietro behind him. Karel Vejmelka at 1.5 over Cossa.

Logan Thompson projects at 1.5 but is on IR with a lower-body injury and an expected return around Oct. 28; Lindgren has the crease until then. Filip Gustavsson's 1.5 is a mirage: he is on LTIR after offseason hip surgery, with Wallstedt the Wild's No. 1. Alex Lyon's 1.3 is worse, since the report says a setback with no timeline.

Two streaming goalies with real four-game backing: Anton Forsberg (about 1.3) in a Kings tandem ESPN called up for grabs on Oct. 18, and Stuart Skinner (about 1.2), Winnipeg's No. 1 for now. Dan Vladar is at 1.3 on Philadelphia's three.

Streams for the week

The week-value numbers below are per-game contribution across the standard categories times games played. They are context for a one-week decision, not fantasy points.

Jake Sanderson is the best of them and barely qualifies as a stream at #109: 42.7 on four games, first pair with Zub, PP1, PK1. He returned against Florida after missing eight games with a lower-body injury from the Oct. 3 opener. The wire carries a day-to-day note that the coverage I found does not explain. Cole Perfetti (#144, 39.5) gets Winnipeg's four from the top line with Connor and Scheifele and PP1. Alex Laferriere (#130, 40.6) gets the Kings' four in a middle-six right wing role with some second-unit power-play time; the listings disagree on his linemates.

Angus Booth tops the raw value at 54.6 on four Los Angeles games, and you should ignore it. Daily Faceoff's Kings page lists six defensemen and he is not one of them. He is a recall candidate. Arthur Kaliyev (36.3) and Cole O'Hara (35.9) carry the same problem in sharper form: Kaliyev's player page as indexed shows him as a free agent, and no Senators line I found includes him; O'Hara does not appear in Nashville's twelve forwards on the Morning Puck page. Neither is rosterable until someone confirms where they are playing.

Better three-game bets: Tristan Luneau (37.9), who had a goal and two assists in Anaheim's 5-4 win over Philadelphia on Oct. 24, though he sits on the third pair and PP2 and was scratched Oct. 22. Oliver Bonk (42.8) was recalled Oct. 11 to cover Flyers blue-line injuries; I have no confirmed pairing or power-play slot for him. Porter Martone (41) got 15:12 against Carolina including 3:21 on the power play, up from about 13 a game before that.

Adds for good

Connor Bedard (#65) is back as Chicago's top-line center after offseason left shoulder surgery, with Kantserov and Kane on his wings and a PP1 spot. He debuted Oct. 13 against Pittsburgh with a primary assist. Three games.

Dylan Holloway (#72) opens on St. Louis's top line with Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud and on PP1 in every projection I found, and he put up seven shots in a 23:13 game. Matthew Schaefer (#71) is the Islanders' top-pair defenseman and first power-play quarterback at 19, and logged 25:23 in his prior game, the most on their blue line. Both play three.

Zach Hyman (#66) is the four-game play here. He returned from a six-game absence on Oct. 17 and skated 12:51 at even strength with Kapanen and Dach. Whether Babcock puts him back on McDavid's wing is an open question. Lucas Raymond (#64) keeps PP1 in every source but has bounced between line 1 and line 3 this month.

Injuries that matter

Nick Suzuki is out to Nov. 18 with an upper-body injury. That is Montreal's top-line center and PP1 quarterback gone for close to a month, not a blip. Aleksander Barkov is on LTIR with a lower-body injury, 6-8 weeks, non-surgical rehab, expected back around Nov. 27. Stash or drop depending on your bench depth.

John Tavares is on IR with a lower-body injury and an expected return of Oct. 31. Mathew Barzal misses at least the two-game road trip with a knee injury and no specific team timeline. Kevin Fiala has a lower leg fracture, at least three weeks, and is only just skating on his own.

Shorter ones: Mitch Marner is out for personal reasons with an expected return of Oct. 27, two days from the note. Evgeni Malkin is day-to-day with illness, expected back Oct. 29. Logan Thompson is on IR with a lower-body issue, expected around Oct. 28.

Separately, several top names carry day-to-day wire notes with no explanation in the coverage I found: Oettinger, Kaprizov, Celebrini and Matthews. Kaprizov played through his on Oct. 18 at 22:32 and scored on the power play. For the others I do not know the cause and will not pretend otherwise. Matthew Tkachuk left the Oct. 17 game after a collision with Bennett; Maurice called it precautionary and said he would likely practice Monday, and I have seen no report after that.